I was at (another) debate on the economics of Scottish independence on Monday. One of the panel members, Christine O’Neill, the chairman of a firm, expressed her surprise and dismay that both campaigns – for and against independence – had focused almost exclusively on economic issues, rather than, for instance, what it means for our culture and values, and what kind of society we would like to create in Scotland.
I’m with her – particularly when the economics is so up in the air, with both sides throwing around contradictory “facts” which are frankly nothing of the sort. O’Neill likened it to the campaigns trying to buy votes – with Better Together offering us £4bn (about £1000 each) and the SNP offering £5bn. (Both these claims are based huge assumptions which make them impossible to compare.)
Her question, though has a simple answer, as sephologist and pollster John Curtice described at a talk back in April. (See, I’m a glutton for punishment.) Then, in discussion with Stephen Reicher and Jan Eichhoin – it was like a public version of Newsnight Scotland (before it got axed) – Curtice explained that the prime determinant of voting intentions in the referendum was voters’ view on the economy, ahead of cultural identity and values. It apparently explains many anomalies, such the long standing gap between male and female voting intentions – women are more pessimistic about the economy, and more risk averse.
Both sides know this and are tailoring their campaigns accordingly.
Indeed, Curtice admitted he was also responsible for the campaigns focussing on £500 – all it would take to swing their votes: it was his research that identified this low price-point. How cheaply our votes can be bought.