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	<title>Comments on: Where I Stand on Scottish Independence</title>
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		<title>By: patrickhadfield</title>
		<link>http://patrickhadfield.wordpress.com/2012/10/23/where-i-stand-on-scottish-independence/#comment-2452</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[patrickhadfield]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Oct 2012 10:17:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://patrickhadfield.wordpress.com/?p=1199#comment-2452</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Similar populations, but very different economies!

Google says &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.google.co.uk/#hl=en&amp;sugexp=les%3B&amp;gs_nf=3&amp;cp=11&amp;gs_id=6a&amp;xhr=t&amp;q=scotland+gdp&amp;pf=p&amp;output=search&amp;sclient=psy-ab&amp;oq=scotland+gd&amp;gs_l=&amp;pbx=1&amp;bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&amp;fp=8452a943ad72eb32&amp;bpcl=35466521&amp;biw=1024&amp;bih=614&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Scotland&#039;s GDP is $216bn&lt;/a&gt;. We don&#039;t know what the national debt will be (all those unknowns - and let&#039;s face, a UK-exScotland government would try to stuff as much debt onto Scotland as it could); the Guardian reckons it could be &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/reality-check-with-polly-curtis/2012/feb/27/scotland-independent-debt-deficit&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;£81bn plus potential liabilities from a share of RBS and HBoS of a further £100bn&lt;/a&gt;. At $1.6/£, that is $130bn plus $160bn - a total of $290bn. The debt:GDP ratio is therefore 60% or 134%, excluding or including banks.

Denmark&#039;s &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.google.co.uk/#hl=en&amp;sugexp=les%3B&amp;gs_nf=3&amp;pq=scotland%20gdp&amp;cp=3&amp;gs_id=q&amp;xhr=t&amp;q=denmark+gdp&amp;pf=p&amp;sclient=psy-ab&amp;oq=den+gdp&amp;gs_l=&amp;pbx=1&amp;bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&amp;fp=8452a943ad72eb32&amp;bpcl=35466521&amp;biw=1024&amp;bih=614&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;GDP is $333bn&lt;/a&gt; - 50% more than Scotland&#039;s (so Denmark&#039;s population is 50% more productive). The level of Danish &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.indexmundi.com/denmark/public_debt.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;national debt is 47% of GDP&lt;/a&gt; - much lower than Scotland&#039;s, even excluding bank liabilities.

So if you wanted to lend someone £14bn per year (the Guardian&#039;s estimate of Scotland&#039;s annual borrowing using an optimistic split of oil revenues), would you lend it to Denmark or Scotland - who have to work 50% harder to pay it off?

Scotland would have to pay a lot more than Denmark to fund the debt. And of course Scotland has LESS money with which to pay that interest - so debt interest as a proportion of GDP is way higher.

(All figures quick and dirty, and I have no idea if they are truly comparable!)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Similar populations, but very different economies!</p>
<p>Google says <a href="http://www.google.co.uk/#hl=en&amp;sugexp=les%3B&amp;gs_nf=3&amp;cp=11&amp;gs_id=6a&amp;xhr=t&amp;q=scotland+gdp&amp;pf=p&amp;output=search&amp;sclient=psy-ab&amp;oq=scotland+gd&amp;gs_l=&amp;pbx=1&amp;bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&amp;fp=8452a943ad72eb32&amp;bpcl=35466521&amp;biw=1024&amp;bih=614" rel="nofollow">Scotland&#8217;s GDP is $216bn</a>. We don&#8217;t know what the national debt will be (all those unknowns &#8211; and let&#8217;s face, a UK-exScotland government would try to stuff as much debt onto Scotland as it could); the Guardian reckons it could be <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/reality-check-with-polly-curtis/2012/feb/27/scotland-independent-debt-deficit" rel="nofollow">£81bn plus potential liabilities from a share of RBS and HBoS of a further £100bn</a>. At $1.6/£, that is $130bn plus $160bn &#8211; a total of $290bn. The debt:GDP ratio is therefore 60% or 134%, excluding or including banks.</p>
<p>Denmark&#8217;s <a href="http://www.google.co.uk/#hl=en&amp;sugexp=les%3B&amp;gs_nf=3&amp;pq=scotland%20gdp&amp;cp=3&amp;gs_id=q&amp;xhr=t&amp;q=denmark+gdp&amp;pf=p&amp;sclient=psy-ab&amp;oq=den+gdp&amp;gs_l=&amp;pbx=1&amp;bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&amp;fp=8452a943ad72eb32&amp;bpcl=35466521&amp;biw=1024&amp;bih=614" rel="nofollow">GDP is $333bn</a> &#8211; 50% more than Scotland&#8217;s (so Denmark&#8217;s population is 50% more productive). The level of Danish <a href="http://www.indexmundi.com/denmark/public_debt.html" rel="nofollow">national debt is 47% of GDP</a> &#8211; much lower than Scotland&#8217;s, even excluding bank liabilities.</p>
<p>So if you wanted to lend someone £14bn per year (the Guardian&#8217;s estimate of Scotland&#8217;s annual borrowing using an optimistic split of oil revenues), would you lend it to Denmark or Scotland &#8211; who have to work 50% harder to pay it off?</p>
<p>Scotland would have to pay a lot more than Denmark to fund the debt. And of course Scotland has LESS money with which to pay that interest &#8211; so debt interest as a proportion of GDP is way higher.</p>
<p>(All figures quick and dirty, and I have no idea if they are truly comparable!)</p>
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		<title>By: andrewducker</title>
		<link>http://patrickhadfield.wordpress.com/2012/10/23/where-i-stand-on-scottish-independence/#comment-2444</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[andrewducker]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Oct 2012 18:36:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://patrickhadfield.wordpress.com/?p=1199#comment-2444</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Denmark has around the same population as Scotland, and seems to manage its own currency perfectly well...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Denmark has around the same population as Scotland, and seems to manage its own currency perfectly well&#8230;</p>
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